This week it is all happening in Sydney with regards to the Technology world and Tech Startups alike with +SydStart and +CeBIT currently underway.
For those of you who are able to go to either of these events... I envy you! For those of you who are still unsure... Give someone else your ticket! These are not to be missed.
MARKETS
Who's right? Who knows! As far as I'm concerned, stay cashed up to exploit buying opportunities rather than jumping into investments to avoid missing out on a deal...
Why Australian Stocks
are in Dangerous Territory - Original article here...
By Dan Denning •
May 27th, 2013 +Daily Reckoning Australia
The Australian stock market has opened down. But
our friend Phil Anderson is not worried. We’ve been working with Phil on a new
project that you’ll hear about later this week. He reckons the all-time highs
on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials are confirmation that markets
are heading much higher rather than crashing.
Phil looks at short-, medium-, and long-term cycles. The
core of his work is the contention that an 18-year property cycle is at work in
Australia, derived from a similar cycle in US land values. His basic claim now
is that the US stock market is a signal that the Australian property market is
on the verge of…well, we’ll let him tell you later this week.
But it was his forecast for commodities that
caught us most off-guard when we last spoke with him. Phil has studied the work
of 20th century Soviet cycle theorist Nickolai Kondratiev. Kondratiev argued
that commodity prices moved in long cycles, or waves, of 60 years, with 30
years up and 30 years down.
Do a bit of googling and you’ll find many an analyst who
tells you we’re in the middle of a Kondratiev winter. That is, folks will argue
the commodity market peaked in 2007 and we’re in the early stages of a
long-term downtrend. This is a version of Vern
Gowdie’s secular bear market, but applied to commodities.
Vern’s position on Australian stocks will be
correct if we’re in a 30-year bear market for commodities. But in the meantime,
in his recorded remarks, Phil has told us that the commodity cycle isn’t even
halfway over in Australia! You can imagine our surprise hearing that. But he
made his case in detail.
You’ll hear more about that case in the coming days. But for
now, have a look at the chart below from Australia’s official resource
forecaster, the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE). Last week, BREE
reported that investment in the resources sector has reached
a cyclical peak at around $256 billion.
BREE also reported that over $150 billion worth of projects
have been cancelled or delayed in the last twelve months. It concluded that, 'The
stock of committed investment has peaked and is projected to decline over the
next five years as a result of fewer high value projects progressing through
the investment pipeline.' Uh oh.
Source: BREE
This is a dangerous moment for Australian stocks, maybe as dangerous as
any since 2007. Foreign capital seems to be leaving these shores. The
Australian dollar's fall makes the country’s assets riskier than they have been
in the last three years. This is through no fault of the Australian dollar. It’s simply the
weak Japanese Yen making US-dollar denominated assets more desirable.
But there ARE signs of domestic unhappiness in Australia.
The terms of trade are one such sign. The coming blow to national income
through a falling terms of trade could be much bigger and burlier than is
commonly expected, at least according to chart published last week by the Australian
Parliamentary Budget Office. Have a look below.
Source: Parliamentary Budget Office
When we showed the chart to our colleague Greg Canavan at Sound
Money Sound Investments — who’s been following a version of it for
over a year now — he sent back the following reply, ‘Thank goodness for iron
ore and coal huh? Now for the aftermath…national pay cut, which will manifest
in higher unemployment, and a renewed downturn in property prices.’
There you have it! On one side of the argument you have
forecasts for a stock market crash, a secular bear market, and falling property
prices. And on the other, an argument for higher stock prices and an 18-year
property boom. Who’s right? Stay tuned for more tomorrow.
REAL ESTATE
PIPA upholds
anti-spruiker campaign
Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has
continued the call for caution in light of recent spruiker concerns, urging
investors to ensure full due diligence is carried out before signing the dotted
line.
PIPA chair, Ben Kingsley, says the opportunity for
investment in property is ...continue reading
Why investors should
consider alternatives to residential property
As interest rates fall, making cash and term deposits less
attractive to investors, there’s an increased level of interest in property.
However, a stampede back into the old stomping grounds of residential property
might not be in their best interests, as Mark Pratt reports.
Investing in ‘bricks and mortar’ property has long been an
attractive option for ...continue reading
How to invest in
property without getting burnt
If you want to invest in property, you’re in good company.
Of the 200 richest Australians in 2012, 55 made their
fortune in real estate – by far the biggest single millionaire-factory in
Australia.
And it’s not just the top end who are getting rich off land.
The financial security of millions of middle-class Australians, perhaps yours
among them, is maintained into retirement chiefly by the value of their homes.
Property is Australia’s largest asset class. But most
Australians don’t use property for investment purposes. Which is exactly why you should continue reading...
SME
Budget changes are
sting in the tail for Australian companies expanding overseas
The government this month announced a number of changes to
the corporate tax regime intended to limit the ability of multinational
corporations to avoid paying tax in Australia.
But the changes make it more expensive for Australian
companies to raise ...continue reading
City of Sydney seeks
to boost start-ups
The Sydney government wants to boost startups as it's a key
part of the city’s economy, according to Deputy Lord Mayor Robyn Kemmis.
“The city will continue to identify opportunities for
creative enterprises, and in particular technology startups,” Kemmis said in a
keynote at the SydStart conference.
“We do recognise their signal presence in the new economy
and recognize they play a critical role in ...continue reading
Start Your Pitches:
It’s A Huge Week For Start-Ups In Australia
It’s a big week for the Australian startup scene with
hundreds of investors due to attend two major conferences in Sydney.
About 400 startups and 200 investors have registered to
attend the sold-out SydStart event at the Federation Conference Centre in Surry
Hills on Tuesday.
The twice-yearly event launched in 2009. It features a
conference, expo, presentations by startups and investors and a ‘pitchfest’
that determines who wins the SydStart startup trophy.
Meanwhile, German-born technology conference CeBIT will host
100 startups on its exhibition floor at the ...continue reading
Well there you have it folks. There is a lot to see this week, especially in Sydney... As a matter of fact, here is a list of events thanks to +Albert Mai on behalf of Startup Digest you may find interesting. Until the next time dear readers...
What's Going on in the Sydney Startup Community
CeBIT Australia ($44-$99)
Tuesday, May 28 - May 30 | Sydney Convention & Exhibition Centre, Darling Harbour, Sydney | View in Calendar
Australia largest event for Cloud, Big Data, Public Sector ICT and Security.
Tuesday, May 28 - May 30 | Sydney Convention & Exhibition Centre, Darling Harbour, Sydney | View in Calendar
Australia largest event for Cloud, Big Data, Public Sector ICT and Security.
SydStart 2013
Tuesday, May 28 @9AM - 5PM | Federation Conference Centre @ 37 Reservoir St, Surry Hills, 2010 | View in Calendar
SydStart is Australia's largest professional tech startup event focused on disruptive innovation startups enabled by technology, investors, talent and our industry ecosystem. SydStart is the home of the tech startup community in Australia. Last year we had 1,100 tech entrepreneurs and investors and aspiring entrepreneurs. This time we have international and national keynotes, 20+ speakers lined up and more to come.
Tuesday, May 28 @9AM - 5PM | Federation Conference Centre @ 37 Reservoir St, Surry Hills, 2010 | View in Calendar
SydStart is Australia's largest professional tech startup event focused on disruptive innovation startups enabled by technology, investors, talent and our industry ecosystem. SydStart is the home of the tech startup community in Australia. Last year we had 1,100 tech entrepreneurs and investors and aspiring entrepreneurs. This time we have international and national keynotes, 20+ speakers lined up and more to come.
NSW Girl Geek Coffee Meetup
Tuesday, May 28 @12PM - 3PM | Max Brenner Ultimo @ 179 Broadway, Ultimo, 2007 | View in Calendar
This is a casual meet up and does not include presentations or activities. However, this is a great opportunity to meet other women in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) like yourself in a friendly environment.
Tuesday, May 28 @12PM - 3PM | Max Brenner Ultimo @ 179 Broadway, Ultimo, 2007 | View in Calendar
This is a casual meet up and does not include presentations or activities. However, this is a great opportunity to meet other women in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) like yourself in a friendly environment.
The Startup Kids
Tuesday, May 28 @6PM - 9PM | Hub Sydney @ 2/ 101 William St, Darling Hurst, 2010 | View in Calendar
Hub Sydney will be doing a special screening of The Startup Kids, a documentary about young web entrepreneurs across the U.S. and Europe. There are interviews with the founders of Vimeo,Soundcloud, Kiip, Dropbox, Foodspotting and many others who talk about how they started their company and their lives as an entrepreneur. Learn more about The Startup Kids and check out the trailer.
Tuesday, May 28 @6PM - 9PM | Hub Sydney @ 2/ 101 William St, Darling Hurst, 2010 | View in Calendar
Hub Sydney will be doing a special screening of The Startup Kids, a documentary about young web entrepreneurs across the U.S. and Europe. There are interviews with the founders of Vimeo,Soundcloud, Kiip, Dropbox, Foodspotting and many others who talk about how they started their company and their lives as an entrepreneur. Learn more about The Startup Kids and check out the trailer.
Sydney ALT.NET: Practical DDD and Code Perspective
Tuesday, May 28 @6PM - 9PM | Thoughtworks @ 8/51 Pitt St, 2000 | View in Calendar
This month topics are Practical Domain Driven Design - Mohammed Abed and CodePerspective - Brendan Forster
Tuesday, May 28 @6PM - 9PM | Thoughtworks @ 8/51 Pitt St, 2000 | View in Calendar
This month topics are Practical Domain Driven Design - Mohammed Abed and CodePerspective - Brendan Forster
Failcon Sydney ($99)
Thursday, May 30 @9AM - 5PM | Museum of Contemporary Art Australia @ 6/ 140 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
It’s time to stop being afraid of failure, and start embracing it .FailCon will benefit anyone wanting to bring about change in their professional life, but who are hesitant to do so. Or, those people who have failed and are uninspired to try again.
Thursday, May 30 @9AM - 5PM | Museum of Contemporary Art Australia @ 6/ 140 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
It’s time to stop being afraid of failure, and start embracing it .FailCon will benefit anyone wanting to bring about change in their professional life, but who are hesitant to do so. Or, those people who have failed and are uninspired to try again.
Product Camp Sydney
Saturday, June 01 @9AM - 5PM | Atlassian @ 6/ 341 George St, Sydney, NSW | View in Calendar
ProductCamp is Sydney's premiere event for Product Management, Product Marketing, and Marketing professionals to teach to, learn from, and network with each other. ProductCamp is an un-conference, meaning that it is FREE to you! Your only cost is your participation – bring your ideas, lead a session in your area of expertise, facilitate a roundtable discussion, network, or volunteer.
Saturday, June 01 @9AM - 5PM | Atlassian @ 6/ 341 George St, Sydney, NSW | View in Calendar
ProductCamp is Sydney's premiere event for Product Management, Product Marketing, and Marketing professionals to teach to, learn from, and network with each other. ProductCamp is an un-conference, meaning that it is FREE to you! Your only cost is your participation – bring your ideas, lead a session in your area of expertise, facilitate a roundtable discussion, network, or volunteer.
Random Hack of Kindness (RHoK) - Global Hackathon for Humanity
Saturday, June 01 @9AM - June 02 @5PM | DiUS Office @ 8/ 220 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
Random Hacks of Kindness is a global initiative that was started by Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, NASA and the World Bank. It brings hackers together with experts in things like bushfire response, climate change and other natural disasters. The aim is to spend the weekend building practical, open source solutions to real world problems. For more details, please go here: http://rhoksydney.org/.
Saturday, June 01 @9AM - June 02 @5PM | DiUS Office @ 8/ 220 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
Random Hacks of Kindness is a global initiative that was started by Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, NASA and the World Bank. It brings hackers together with experts in things like bushfire response, climate change and other natural disasters. The aim is to spend the weekend building practical, open source solutions to real world problems. For more details, please go here: http://rhoksydney.org/.
Sydney Testers: Agile Testing
Monday, June 03 @6:15PM - 9:30PM | Atlassian @ 6/ 341 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
Brad Futter will share some of my thoughts and experiences on how you can build quality into software while using agile practices, before inviting you to join me in an open forum. This will be a chance for you to nominate topics for discussion around agile delivery and building quality in. The topics will then be voted on with the top topics being discussed.
Monday, June 03 @6:15PM - 9:30PM | Atlassian @ 6/ 341 George St, 2000 | View in Calendar
Brad Futter will share some of my thoughts and experiences on how you can build quality into software while using agile practices, before inviting you to join me in an open forum. This will be a chance for you to nominate topics for discussion around agile delivery and building quality in. The topics will then be voted on with the top topics being discussed.
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