Thursday, 14 February 2013

Markets, Real Estate and SME

Markets

The market closed positively today. At the close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 32.2 points, or 0.66 per cent, higher at 5,036.9 while the broader All Ordinaries index was up 32.7 points, or 0.65 per cent, at 5,057.2.
On the ASX 24, the March share price index futures contract was 39 points higher at 4,995 with 25,967 contracts traded. Translated into plain English...nothing to get excited about.

Cash Converters Profits Rise - This makes me concerned, not excited when second hand stores business increase whether through sales or through lending.

"Cash Converters' half year profits have soared nearly 40 per cent, thanks to a boost in revenue from its personal loans business.
The second-hand goods retailer and supplier of personal finance on Thursday posted a net profit of $18.4 million for the six months to December 31, up from"continue reading...

Real Estate

Property Investors unlikely to profit from surge of Asian buyers

We are, by many accounts, living in the Asian century; a time when the nations of the world’s largest continent, led by China, will dominate the global economic, social and cultural landscape. In light of the enormous strides since just the turn of the millennium by the likes of China, South Korea and India, and the rise of brands like Samsung and Lenovo, it’s not a forecast I wish to contest (although forgive me if I don’t extrapolate too much from the success of Gangnam Style!) continue reading...

The history of Australian property prices...Are we in a bubble? A masters student's perspective...read here

SME

What drives the best entrepreneurs? - Original article on Forbes.com

The EXIT…that elusive pot of gold at the end of the entrepreneurial rainbow.  Whether by acquisition or IPO, the exit ranks as priority number one for investors and, with the increasing trendiness of running a  “startup”, many aspiring entrepreneurs.  The phenomenal success and 'celebritization' of Silicon Valley tech entrepreneurs like Zuckerberg, Dorsey, Page, Brin, and others has created a wave of would-be startup billionaires dreaming of Gulfstreams and Maybachs.  The allure of fame and fortune has attracted many to the world of entrepreneurship, but for as attractive as the siren of fortune may be, its sole pursuit can sow the seeds of destruction for any new venture.

It is said that the love of money is the root of all evil.  While this point is certainly debatable, current academic research is becoming increasingly clear that such a love, if not evil, is certainly isolating—a fate equivalent to death for ambitious entrepreneurs.

In his book Thinking Fast and Slow, Nobel Prize winning economist Daniel Kahneman cites compelling research done in the lab of Dr. Kathleen Vohs at the University of Minnesota on the psychological effects of money on human behaviour   In her work, Dr. Vohs focuses on the effects of psychological “priming”—the near subconscious influence of environmental cues—on human interactions.  Her work on the effects of monetary priming prods subjects with subtle cues like words and images associated with money.   She then measures various metrics such as persistence at difficult tasks, self-reliance, and selfish inclinations.

The results are compelling.

Test subjects that received monetary “priming” cues were statistically differentiated from those receiving neutral cues on a number of metrics.  Major differences were seen in specific characteristics of individualism and included:
  • A two-fold increase in the persistence time to solve a difficult task
  • A significantly reduced willingness to help a fellow student with a task
  • A significantly reduced willingness to volunteer assistance to a stranger
  • A significantly greater physical separation when seated across from a person during an introductory conversation.

For sure, a strong sense of individualism and persistence are essential attributes of successful entrepreneurs.  Yet other characteristics identified by Dr. Vohs as associated with a monetary focus such as a reluctance to be involved with or dependent on others, or to accept direction from outside parties are almost certainly detrimental.  The myth of the solo entrepreneur has been debunked in a number of forums and it has become a point of general agreement that great ventures require successful teams to execute.

Given this research, if great ventures result from great teams, it can be concluded that financial gain is not the primary driver of great entrepreneurs.  Unless we assume that entrepreneurs are crazy, the fact that the probability of windfall profits is vanishingly small for the vast majority of ventures only adds to this argument.
But then we must ask ourselves: why do entrepreneurs do what they do and take such great risks?  It seems clear that financial gain is not a sufficient explanation. 
 It is both too rare and, according to the research, actually impedes an entrepreneur’s ability to build a team that would produce great returns.  From a classical risk-reward perspective, it is simply not worth it.  
But the fact that entrepreneurs continue to take extraordinary risks for a small expected return (from a probabilistic standpoint) indicates that something else is balancing the scales.

The answer lies in what are becoming known as extra-rational motivations.  Such motivations lie mainly in the psychological rewards of being an entrepreneur and include benefits derived from:
  • the thrill of competition
  • the desire for adventure
  • the joy of creation
  • the satisfaction of team building
  • the desire to achieve meaning in life
  • and a host of others that have not been traditionally considered as drivers of economic growth.  
For entrepreneurs that, admittedly, take great risks for the slim chance of substantial financial success, these extra-rational motivations help to tip the balance.

The recognition that behavioural psychology plays a central role in economic development is profound and flies directly in the face of traditional theories of prosperity that focus solely on optimal resource allocation.  So the next time you see an entrepreneur and think they must be crazy for taking such risks, or dream of quitting your job to pursue a startup and become fabulously rich, make sure you check your assumptions, ponder your motivations, and reflect on the true drivers of great entrepreneurship (hint: it’s not the money).






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